Pending vs Sold Comps: Which Matter?
When you run comps, you'll see three categories of listings: active (currently for sale), pending (under contract but not yet closed), and sold (closed transactions). Most investors focus exclusively on sold comps, and for good reason: they represent confirmed market prices. But pending comps carry information that sold comps can't provide, and ignoring them means missing part of the picture.
Sold comps: the gold standard
Sold comps are the foundation of any ARV analysis. They represent actual transactions where a buyer and seller agreed on a price, the buyer's lender approved the value (if financed), and the deal closed. There's no speculation: the price is real.
Strengths of sold comps:
- Verified transaction prices
- Include concession and closing cost details
- Show actual days on market
- Lender-validated (if financed)
- Available in both MLS and public records
Limitations of sold comps:
- Reflect prices from 30-90+ days ago (contract to close takes time)
- May not represent current market conditions in fast-moving markets
- Contract price was agreed to weeks or months before the close date
Pending comps: the leading indicator
Pending comps are properties under contract that haven't closed yet. The agreed-upon price is typically not public (most MLS systems hide the sale price until closing), but the listing price history and the fact that a buyer went under contract provide valuable data.
What pending comps tell you:
- Current buyer willingness: Someone is willing to pay close to the last listed price right now
- Market direction: If pending prices are above or below recent sold prices, the market is moving
- Demand level: Quick transitions from active to pending indicate strong demand
- Price validation: A pending listing at $275K confirms that $275K is within the market range today
When pending comps matter most
Rapidly changing markets
In a market appreciating or depreciating at 1%+ per month, sold comps from 3-6 months ago are already outdated. Pending comps show where the market is heading. If sold comps average $260K and similar pending listings went under contract at $275K list prices, the current market is likely around $270K-$275K.
Low-volume markets
When sold comps are scarce (fewer than 3 in your area within 6 months), pending comps fill the data gap. A pending listing in a rural area might be the most current price signal you have. See our guide on what to do when comps don't exist for more strategies.
Seasonal transitions
During the spring ramp-up (March-April), many new listings go pending quickly. If your last sold comps are from the winter low, pending comps from the spring market give you a better picture of where prices are headed. See how seasons affect property values.
How to use pending comps in your analysis
Since you typically don't know the exact contract price of a pending listing, use these approaches:
Last list price as a proxy
In most markets, homes sell within 97-100% of the final list price (not the original list price, but the last listed price before going pending). If a listing was reduced from $289K to $275K and then went pending, the contract is likely between $268K-$275K.
Market-specific sale-to-list ratio
Calculate the average sale-to-list ratio from recent sold comps in the area. If the ratio is 98%, apply that to the pending listing's last list price. A pending listing at $280K with a 98% ratio suggests a $274K contract price.
Supporting evidence only
The safest approach is to use pending comps as supporting evidence rather than primary data points. Let sold comps determine your ARV range, then check whether pending comps confirm or challenge that range. If pending data points in a different direction than sold data, investigate why before adjusting your ARV.
Active listings: the ceiling
Active listings (currently for sale) are the weakest comp type because they represent asking prices, not transaction prices. However, they provide a useful ceiling: your ARV should generally not exceed what similar renovated properties are currently listed for, unless you have strong evidence that listings are underpriced.
Active listings are also useful for understanding competition. If you plan to sell a renovated property in 4 months and there are already 8 similar active listings in the area, you'll face competition that could pressure your sale price downward.
The hierarchy of comp types
| Comp Type | Reliability | Timeliness | Best Used For |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sold (0-3 months) | Highest | Good | Primary ARV basis |
| Sold (3-6 months) | High | Moderate | Supporting data with time adjustment |
| Pending | Moderate | Highest | Market direction indicator |
| Active | Low | Highest | Price ceiling and competition analysis |
| Sold (6-12 months) | Moderate | Low | Last resort with significant time adjustment |
Red flags in pending data
Not all pending listings are equally informative. Watch for:
- Days on market before going pending: A property that sat for 120 days before going pending likely accepted a below-ask offer
- Multiple price reductions: Heavy price cuts followed by a pending status suggest the final price is below the last list price
- Status changes: "Back on market" after a pending status means the previous deal fell through, which can indicate appraisal or inspection issues at that price point
- Contingencies: Some MLS systems show whether the pending sale has contingencies (inspection, financing, sale of buyer's home). Pending with no contingencies is a stronger data point.
Putting it all together
A complete comp analysis uses all three listing types in their proper role. Use Deal Run's comp analysis to pull sold, pending, and active listings simultaneously. Then apply the ARV calculator to weight the data appropriately.
- Start with sold comps from the last 3-6 months as your primary ARV basis
- Check pending listings to confirm market direction (stable, rising, or falling)
- Review active listings for competition level and price ceiling
- If pending data suggests the market has moved beyond your sold comps, adjust your ARV accordingly
- If active inventory is high relative to absorption rate, consider a downward adjustment for market competition
Related articles
- How to Run Comps Like a Pro
- Calculating ARV in Declining Markets
- Days on Market: What It Tells You
- How to Calculate ARV Step by Step